The Thrashers have now played about 10% of their season schedule. I was looking at where this year's club ranks in various categories compared to past Thrasher teams. There are a 72 more games to be played and some of these numbers for this season could move quite dramatically. So far the team has had one blowout win (7-4 over WAS) and one blowout loss (0-7 PHI) and a bunch of close contests (but mostly losses).To make these rankings more intuitive, any team ranking that is in the bottom 1/3 I made the text appear blue and any ranking in the middle 1/3 black and any ranking in the top 1/3 red. Standings Rank2000-2001 282001-2002 302002-2003 232003-2004 212005-2006 202006-2007 122007-2008 272008-2009 29Summary: Only one season has the team not finished in the bottom third.Player Salary Rank2000-2001 282001-2002 282002-2003 282003-2004 262005-2006 022006-2007 172007-2008 232008-2009 29After the lockout the owners spent big time, then fell to middle of the back and then to the basement again in the 3rd season after the lockout.Average Attendance Rank2000-2001 232001-2002 282002-2003 282003-2004 222005-2006 232006-2007 212007-2008 222008-2009 28Attendance has never been great other than the initial 1999-2000 season. On the other hand the Thrashers attendance ranking has been higher than their standings ranking multiple times in team history--people have bought tickets even for a terrible hockey product.Offense (Goals For Average)2000-2001 272001-2002 26 2002-2003 10 2003-2004 132005-2006 062006-2007 152007-2008 222008-2009 24Offense is one rare area where the Thrashers have managed to be above average in their franchise history. The one year the team spent big they were very good offensively, because almost all the money went into forwards--of course they also couldn't defend very well.Defense (Goals Against Average)2000-2001 292001-2002 302002-2003 302003-2004 252005-2006 242006-2007 152007-2008 302008-2009 29This is by far the most damning indictment of Don Waddell's tenure. That a former defensemen can't seem to assemble a mediocre defensive corps is really amazing. The best defensive season in franchise history the team only managed to rise as high as middle of the pack, every other season the club has finished in the bottom third.Goal Differential (Goals Scored - Goals Allowed)2000-2001 282001-2002 302002-2003 272003-2004 222005-2006 162006-2007 162007-2008 302008-2009 30To be an contending club you can't continually stink it up on offense or defense, you have to be able to both reasonably well. The Thrashers had two outstanding offensive teams and neither made the playoffs. The one team that did was decent on offense (15th) and decent on defense (15th).Shots On Goal Differential (Shots For - Shots Against)2000-2001 262001-2002 202002-2003 262003-2004 242005-2006 132006-2007 192007-2008 302008-2009 27The current Thrashers team is ranked 11th in shots for but just 29th in shots against.Team Goaltending (Save Percentage)2000-2001 242001-2002 272002-2003 302003-2004 272005-2006 242006-2007 132007-2008 192008-2009 20Pre-lockout the Thrashers finished in the basement each season, post-lockout this is one of the few areas where the team has ranked in the middle third. Lehtonen's SV% ranking has increased each year relative to other starting goalies.Finishing (Shot Percentage)2000-2001 232001-2002 172002-2003 072003-2004 052005-2006 062006-2007 122007-2008 112008-2009 27In their history the Thrashers have had three offensive superstars: Kovalchuk , Heatley and Hossa. You can see this in the team shot percentage. Great players finish off their chances at a much higher rate than your average player. This season the Thrashers ranked 11th in shots taken but rank just 27th in terms of scoring on their shots--that's what losing a Marian Hossa means (and having Kovalchuk off to a slow start). Still there is reason to believe the offense will improve if Kovalchuk heats up and the rest of the forwards get a little more luck around the net.Power Play Percentage2000-2001 252001-2002 292002-2003 132003-2004 232005-2006 042006-2007 232007-2008 232008-2009 19Despite having some super stars who could finish, the Thrashers have had just one outstanding PP season in team history. The current PP unit has actually improved over last year's so far.Penalty Kill Percentage2000-2001 302001-2002 252002-2003 242003-2004 082005-2006 272006-2007 262007-2008 272008-2009 26Consistently poor. I have no explanation for that 2003-04 anomaly.Earning Power Play Opportunities2000-2001 072001-2002 242002-2003 132003-2004 022005-2006 012006-2007 102007-2008 282008-2009 09The outstanding area in team history is earning penalties. The Thrashers have been on the PP more often than most teams and they accomplished this in spite of the fact that Kovalchuk doesn't get the benefit of thedoubt as a consequence of his early diving issues.Team Discipline (Avoiding Short Handed Situations)2000-2001 262001-2002 212002-2003 172003-2004 282005-2006 282006-2007 102007-2008 152008-2009 19Bad teams usually take a lot of penalties. The players are not as good and they cheat and get called for it. Given their talent level the Thrashers have been a relatively disciplined team over the years. The one year the team qualified for the playoffs they did very well at staying out of the box. An observation: since Marc Savard and Modry have departed the Thrashers have not finished in the basement in penalties taken.ConclusionThe Thrashers have been bad at a lot of things in their history. I realize that is hardly a news flash to long term fans. What about this year? The most encouraging thing I can say is that they are generating pressure offensively, They rank 11th in shots and their up tempo system is earning the club a lot of PP opportunities (9th). So far they just haven't capitalized (27th in shooting %) and the offense ranks just 24th--I expect the offense to rise as the season progresses.On the defensive side things are still concerning. The shots allowed are still too high. Part of that is the new offensive system in which the defensemen are supposed to take more chances holding the puck in at the offensive blueline. The Thrashers forwards must become better at covering for those pinching defensemen in those situations where they fail to hold it in the offensive zone.Source
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Thrashers Team Rankings in Historical Perspective
The Thrashers have now played about 10% of their season schedule. I was looking at where this year's club ranks in various categories compared to past Thrasher teams. There are a 72 more games to be played and some of these numbers for this season could move quite dramatically. So far the team has had one blowout win (7-4 over WAS) and one blowout loss (0-7 PHI) and a bunch of close contests (but mostly losses).To make these rankings more intuitive, any team ranking that is in the bottom 1/3 I made the text appear blue and any ranking in the middle 1/3 black and any ranking in the top 1/3 red. Standings Rank2000-2001 282001-2002 302002-2003 232003-2004 212005-2006 202006-2007 122007-2008 272008-2009 29Summary: Only one season has the team not finished in the bottom third.Player Salary Rank2000-2001 282001-2002 282002-2003 282003-2004 262005-2006 022006-2007 172007-2008 232008-2009 29After the lockout the owners spent big time, then fell to middle of the back and then to the basement again in the 3rd season after the lockout.Average Attendance Rank2000-2001 232001-2002 282002-2003 282003-2004 222005-2006 232006-2007 212007-2008 222008-2009 28Attendance has never been great other than the initial 1999-2000 season. On the other hand the Thrashers attendance ranking has been higher than their standings ranking multiple times in team history--people have bought tickets even for a terrible hockey product.Offense (Goals For Average)2000-2001 272001-2002 26 2002-2003 10 2003-2004 132005-2006 062006-2007 152007-2008 222008-2009 24Offense is one rare area where the Thrashers have managed to be above average in their franchise history. The one year the team spent big they were very good offensively, because almost all the money went into forwards--of course they also couldn't defend very well.Defense (Goals Against Average)2000-2001 292001-2002 302002-2003 302003-2004 252005-2006 242006-2007 152007-2008 302008-2009 29This is by far the most damning indictment of Don Waddell's tenure. That a former defensemen can't seem to assemble a mediocre defensive corps is really amazing. The best defensive season in franchise history the team only managed to rise as high as middle of the pack, every other season the club has finished in the bottom third.Goal Differential (Goals Scored - Goals Allowed)2000-2001 282001-2002 302002-2003 272003-2004 222005-2006 162006-2007 162007-2008 302008-2009 30To be an contending club you can't continually stink it up on offense or defense, you have to be able to both reasonably well. The Thrashers had two outstanding offensive teams and neither made the playoffs. The one team that did was decent on offense (15th) and decent on defense (15th).Shots On Goal Differential (Shots For - Shots Against)2000-2001 262001-2002 202002-2003 262003-2004 242005-2006 132006-2007 192007-2008 302008-2009 27The current Thrashers team is ranked 11th in shots for but just 29th in shots against.Team Goaltending (Save Percentage)2000-2001 242001-2002 272002-2003 302003-2004 272005-2006 242006-2007 132007-2008 192008-2009 20Pre-lockout the Thrashers finished in the basement each season, post-lockout this is one of the few areas where the team has ranked in the middle third. Lehtonen's SV% ranking has increased each year relative to other starting goalies.Finishing (Shot Percentage)2000-2001 232001-2002 172002-2003 072003-2004 052005-2006 062006-2007 122007-2008 112008-2009 27In their history the Thrashers have had three offensive superstars: Kovalchuk , Heatley and Hossa. You can see this in the team shot percentage. Great players finish off their chances at a much higher rate than your average player. This season the Thrashers ranked 11th in shots taken but rank just 27th in terms of scoring on their shots--that's what losing a Marian Hossa means (and having Kovalchuk off to a slow start). Still there is reason to believe the offense will improve if Kovalchuk heats up and the rest of the forwards get a little more luck around the net.Power Play Percentage2000-2001 252001-2002 292002-2003 132003-2004 232005-2006 042006-2007 232007-2008 232008-2009 19Despite having some super stars who could finish, the Thrashers have had just one outstanding PP season in team history. The current PP unit has actually improved over last year's so far.Penalty Kill Percentage2000-2001 302001-2002 252002-2003 242003-2004 082005-2006 272006-2007 262007-2008 272008-2009 26Consistently poor. I have no explanation for that 2003-04 anomaly.Earning Power Play Opportunities2000-2001 072001-2002 242002-2003 132003-2004 022005-2006 012006-2007 102007-2008 282008-2009 09The outstanding area in team history is earning penalties. The Thrashers have been on the PP more often than most teams and they accomplished this in spite of the fact that Kovalchuk doesn't get the benefit of thedoubt as a consequence of his early diving issues.Team Discipline (Avoiding Short Handed Situations)2000-2001 262001-2002 212002-2003 172003-2004 282005-2006 282006-2007 102007-2008 152008-2009 19Bad teams usually take a lot of penalties. The players are not as good and they cheat and get called for it. Given their talent level the Thrashers have been a relatively disciplined team over the years. The one year the team qualified for the playoffs they did very well at staying out of the box. An observation: since Marc Savard and Modry have departed the Thrashers have not finished in the basement in penalties taken.ConclusionThe Thrashers have been bad at a lot of things in their history. I realize that is hardly a news flash to long term fans. What about this year? The most encouraging thing I can say is that they are generating pressure offensively, They rank 11th in shots and their up tempo system is earning the club a lot of PP opportunities (9th). So far they just haven't capitalized (27th in shooting %) and the offense ranks just 24th--I expect the offense to rise as the season progresses.On the defensive side things are still concerning. The shots allowed are still too high. Part of that is the new offensive system in which the defensemen are supposed to take more chances holding the puck in at the offensive blueline. The Thrashers forwards must become better at covering for those pinching defensemen in those situations where they fail to hold it in the offensive zone.Source
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