Sunday, December 28, 2008

Analysis of the Ducks First 11 Games



After the first three games, it looked like the Ducks would be in for a long season. Three losses, a lack of discipline, and mediocre goaltending did not portend well for a team expected to be competitive this season. In their fourth game, the work ethic and effort improved, but the Ducks still could not come up with their first win of the season.The Ducks finally won their first game against San Jose after going 0-4, and then followed it up by with a game that had plenty of chances, but none of them going into the net. A frustrated and down-hearted Ducks team then prepared for a road trip. Road trips can either be a good bonding experience that can bring about change, or they can make you yearn for home cooking. When the Ducks left, they were hoping for the former, because things were not clicking at home. The team found ways to win, sweeping all four games of the road trip, including Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Columbus. Coming home they followed it up with a strong effort against Detroit to win their fifth game in a row. So what happened?The power play finally started to click. In the first few games, nothing but abysmal would describe it. The Ducks had one power play goal in 25 attempts. One. That translated to a microscopic 4% success rate. Meanwhile St. Louis was clicking at 50% at one point (now "slowed" down to a still-impressive 34.2%). The past four games have seen the Ducks get 7 power play goals in 19 opportunities. That translates to 36.8% in those games. Overall, the Ducks now have an 18.2% success rate. What was once at the bottom of the is now tied for 12th best. The top line is scoring, finally. Initially the checking line of Rob Niedermayer, Sami Pahlsson and Travis Moen were doing the bulk of scoring. The fourth line of George Parros, Brad May and Brian Sutherby also has chipped in admirably this season. The top line? Not until Ryan Getzlaf's root canal in Canada did the top line start putting it in the net. It took eight games before Getzlaf scored his first goal and nine games before Corey Perry and Chris Kunitz did so. Since then Getzlaf 3 goals and 11 points and Perry has 2 goals and 4 assists. The second line is scoring, sort of. Teemu Selanne is finally working on getting more goals than his boys this season. Five of his six goals are on the power play. His linemate, Brendan Morrison, still only has one assist, but has had his chances. If he can start contributing as well, the Ducks will be doing well.Goaltending remains strong. Jean-Sebastien Giguere started off as shaky as his teammates and he started off with a goals against average over four goals per game. He has brought that down to 2.98 goals against. His save percentage has risen from the mid 80's to .912%. He gets plenty of practice making saves, as he has seen more shots on goal than all but two other goalies in the league. Giguere has made 280 saves in 9 games, an average of 31.11 per game. Only Kari Lehtonen of the Atlanta Thrashers has had to make more saves in the same number of games (288 in 9 games, 32 per game). What still needs work? The penalty kill. The specialty teams are killing off penalties 81.8% of the time. Those are decent numbers. It isn't the penalty kill that is the problem. The problem is that the Ducks are the second most penalized team in the. Not all of those penalties have been smart ones or well-timed. They are still needing better discipline.Face offs - the Ducks are only winning 49.5% of their face-offs. Control of the puck is crucial, whether even strength, short-handed or with the extra man. Those precious extra seconds with the puck can make a difference and is just one of those little areas that can be better.The Ducks are currently six points behind San Jose in the Pacific Division. They have made up some ground, but still need to catch up. All games against division rivals will be extra important if they want to challenge to win the division. Four of the next 13 games will be against division rivals and wins will mean inching closer to the Sharks. The Ducks will have plenty of home cooking between now and the end of November. They only take a brief two-game road trip and a jaunt up to LA for another game. The points do matter and getting into a rhythm and good habits at home will help when they venture on the road in December. They need to focus on what they are doing right and continue to improve areas that need work. One thing is certain, the Ducks are finally starting to live up to high expectations. They cannot afford to slack off now. Source

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