Close But No Cigar...Again

The Thrasher played hard and were competitive against a better team...again. Here's a quick re-cap of the Thrashers record after 10 games.7-4 WAS2-3 FLA2-4 MIN0-1 NJD3-2 BUF2-3 TBL3-5 DET (EN goal)4-5 BOS2-3 NYRBasically the Thrashers have been involved in one blowout win and one blowout loss and all the rest of the games they were either tied or within one goal right up until the end of the game. (In the MIN game the score was to 3-2 until 18th minute of the third period).People are flipping out on the official message boards. I guess if I expected this team to make major strides I might flip out too. But I never expected this team to make the playoffs this year. They look like a 85-88 point team to me and playoffs usually require 95 points. Yet, the guys have played hard in every game other than the Philly contest. They have been in every contest but the Philly game.Last season's Thrashers club would have stumbled along for several games after a terrible blowout loss such as the Philly 7-0 game. This team came out and competed, they bounced back and did the good things they were doing prior to Tuesday night. That's the most I can ask as a fan (other than a win). Coach Anderson remarked that they have been a bit unlucky so far and I concur with that. They should probably have a couple more points in the standing but they haven't been able to finish off on some crucial scoring opportunities.This team has more of a future than last year's team. We actually have some young players who could be on a Cup contending team in 2010. Last year we had too many guys who were destined to be out of the by 2010.Source

Analysis of the Ducks First 11 Games

After the first three games, it looked like the Ducks would be in for a long season. Three losses, a lack of discipline, and mediocre goaltending did not portend well for a team expected to be competitive this season. In their fourth game, the work ethic and effort improved, but the Ducks still could not come up with their first win of the season.The Ducks finally won their first game against San Jose after going 0-4, and then followed it up by with a game that had plenty of chances, but none of them going into the net. A frustrated and down-hearted Ducks team then prepared for a road trip. Road trips can either be a good bonding experience that can bring about change, or they can make you yearn for home cooking. When the Ducks left, they were hoping for the former, because things were not clicking at home. The team found ways to win, sweeping all four games of the road trip, including Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Columbus. Coming home they followed it up with a strong effort against Detroit to win their fifth game in a row. So what happened?The power play finally started to click. In the first few games, nothing but abysmal would describe it. The Ducks had one power play goal in 25 attempts. One. That translated to a microscopic 4% success rate. Meanwhile St. Louis was clicking at 50% at one point (now "slowed" down to a still-impressive 34.2%). The past four games have seen the Ducks get 7 power play goals in 19 opportunities. That translates to 36.8% in those games. Overall, the Ducks now have an 18.2% success rate. What was once at the bottom of the is now tied for 12th best. The top line is scoring, finally. Initially the checking line of Rob Niedermayer, Sami Pahlsson and Travis Moen were doing the bulk of scoring. The fourth line of George Parros, Brad May and Brian Sutherby also has chipped in admirably this season. The top line? Not until Ryan Getzlaf's root canal in Canada did the top line start putting it in the net. It took eight games before Getzlaf scored his first goal and nine games before Corey Perry and Chris Kunitz did so. Since then Getzlaf 3 goals and 11 points and Perry has 2 goals and 4 assists. The second line is scoring, sort of. Teemu Selanne is finally working on getting more goals than his boys this season. Five of his six goals are on the power play. His linemate, Brendan Morrison, still only has one assist, but has had his chances. If he can start contributing as well, the Ducks will be doing well.Goaltending remains strong. Jean-Sebastien Giguere started off as shaky as his teammates and he started off with a goals against average over four goals per game. He has brought that down to 2.98 goals against. His save percentage has risen from the mid 80's to .912%. He gets plenty of practice making saves, as he has seen more shots on goal than all but two other goalies in the league. Giguere has made 280 saves in 9 games, an average of 31.11 per game. Only Kari Lehtonen of the Atlanta Thrashers has had to make more saves in the same number of games (288 in 9 games, 32 per game). What still needs work? The penalty kill. The specialty teams are killing off penalties 81.8% of the time. Those are decent numbers. It isn't the penalty kill that is the problem. The problem is that the Ducks are the second most penalized team in the. Not all of those penalties have been smart ones or well-timed. They are still needing better discipline.Face offs - the Ducks are only winning 49.5% of their face-offs. Control of the puck is crucial, whether even strength, short-handed or with the extra man. Those precious extra seconds with the puck can make a difference and is just one of those little areas that can be better.The Ducks are currently six points behind San Jose in the Pacific Division. They have made up some ground, but still need to catch up. All games against division rivals will be extra important if they want to challenge to win the division. Four of the next 13 games will be against division rivals and wins will mean inching closer to the Sharks. The Ducks will have plenty of home cooking between now and the end of November. They only take a brief two-game road trip and a jaunt up to LA for another game. The points do matter and getting into a rhythm and good habits at home will help when they venture on the road in December. They need to focus on what they are doing right and continue to improve areas that need work. One thing is certain, the Ducks are finally starting to live up to high expectations. They cannot afford to slack off now. Source

Trivia For Sunday

HTML clipboard There might not be a home game tonight but there's one onSunday, so that means there's trivia today. I really like how we match upagainst the Panthers and I'm expecting a win. Come out and see it in person andget a spirit flag while you're at it (it's a roughly 18" x 12" Blueland flag).Blueland Blog Trivia is back thanks to the generous support ofThomas Eye Group, and that means you have a chance to win a pair of tickets toeach and every home game of the season. If you're new at this please read overthe official rules and regulations below. If you've played before, welcome back.We're going to start off the season with an easy one.Answer the question below and send your response tothrashers.mailbag@atlantaspirit.comby 2 pm and you could be the winner of two tickets to tonight's game. Pleaseread all of the rules below. Trivia For 11/2 Game: Q) Against which team has Ilya Kovalchuk scored the most career points and how many points has he scored against that team? Please read theofficial rules and regulations for the contest before entering and be awarethat you will have to sign and return a form or two if you are selected. Youalso must be 18 years of age to win Submit your answers(thrashers.mailbag@atlantaspirit.com),and check back at 2:00 p.m. for the answer and to see if you've won!Thank you to The Thomas Eye Group forstepping up and sponsoring the trivia contest for a second season.ABBREVIATED RULESNO PURCHASE NECESSARY. The Blueland Blog Trivia Contest sponsored by Thomas EyeGroup (the "Contest") is open to legal residents of the U.S. and Georgia who areat least 18 years of age at the time of entry, reside within 75 miles of PhilipsArena and have Internet access as of the date and time the Contest was firstmade known to the public. Subject to additional terms and conditions of theOfficial Rules.Click here for Official Rules. One (1) entry per person per Entry Period.Entry Period is from 10AM EST to 2PM EST each Thrashers home game day. Odds ofwinning depend on number of correct entries received. Total AMV of prizes: $64.Void wherever prohibited. Entry forms must be filled out in full. Contest endsApril 11, 2009 at 2:00 PM EST.Source

Thrashers Team Rankings in Historical Perspective

The Thrashers have now played about 10% of their season schedule. I was looking at where this year's club ranks in various categories compared to past Thrasher teams. There are a 72 more games to be played and some of these numbers for this season could move quite dramatically. So far the team has had one blowout win (7-4 over WAS) and one blowout loss (0-7 PHI) and a bunch of close contests (but mostly losses).To make these rankings more intuitive, any team ranking that is in the bottom 1/3 I made the text appear blue and any ranking in the middle 1/3 black and any ranking in the top 1/3 red. Standings Rank2000-2001 282001-2002 302002-2003 232003-2004 212005-2006 202006-2007 122007-2008 272008-2009 29Summary: Only one season has the team not finished in the bottom third.Player Salary Rank2000-2001 282001-2002 282002-2003 282003-2004 262005-2006 022006-2007 172007-2008 232008-2009 29After the lockout the owners spent big time, then fell to middle of the back and then to the basement again in the 3rd season after the lockout.Average Attendance Rank2000-2001 232001-2002 282002-2003 282003-2004 222005-2006 232006-2007 212007-2008 222008-2009 28Attendance has never been great other than the initial 1999-2000 season. On the other hand the Thrashers attendance ranking has been higher than their standings ranking multiple times in team history--people have bought tickets even for a terrible hockey product.Offense (Goals For Average)2000-2001 272001-2002 26 2002-2003 10 2003-2004 132005-2006 062006-2007 152007-2008 222008-2009 24Offense is one rare area where the Thrashers have managed to be above average in their franchise history. The one year the team spent big they were very good offensively, because almost all the money went into forwards--of course they also couldn't defend very well.Defense (Goals Against Average)2000-2001 292001-2002 302002-2003 302003-2004 252005-2006 242006-2007 152007-2008 302008-2009 29This is by far the most damning indictment of Don Waddell's tenure. That a former defensemen can't seem to assemble a mediocre defensive corps is really amazing. The best defensive season in franchise history the team only managed to rise as high as middle of the pack, every other season the club has finished in the bottom third.Goal Differential (Goals Scored - Goals Allowed)2000-2001 282001-2002 302002-2003 272003-2004 222005-2006 162006-2007 162007-2008 302008-2009 30To be an contending club you can't continually stink it up on offense or defense, you have to be able to both reasonably well. The Thrashers had two outstanding offensive teams and neither made the playoffs. The one team that did was decent on offense (15th) and decent on defense (15th).Shots On Goal Differential (Shots For - Shots Against)2000-2001 262001-2002 202002-2003 262003-2004 242005-2006 132006-2007 192007-2008 302008-2009 27The current Thrashers team is ranked 11th in shots for but just 29th in shots against.Team Goaltending (Save Percentage)2000-2001 242001-2002 272002-2003 302003-2004 272005-2006 242006-2007 132007-2008 192008-2009 20Pre-lockout the Thrashers finished in the basement each season, post-lockout this is one of the few areas where the team has ranked in the middle third. Lehtonen's SV% ranking has increased each year relative to other starting goalies.Finishing (Shot Percentage)2000-2001 232001-2002 172002-2003 072003-2004 052005-2006 062006-2007 122007-2008 112008-2009 27In their history the Thrashers have had three offensive superstars: Kovalchuk , Heatley and Hossa. You can see this in the team shot percentage. Great players finish off their chances at a much higher rate than your average player. This season the Thrashers ranked 11th in shots taken but rank just 27th in terms of scoring on their shots--that's what losing a Marian Hossa means (and having Kovalchuk off to a slow start). Still there is reason to believe the offense will improve if Kovalchuk heats up and the rest of the forwards get a little more luck around the net.Power Play Percentage2000-2001 252001-2002 292002-2003 132003-2004 232005-2006 042006-2007 232007-2008 232008-2009 19Despite having some super stars who could finish, the Thrashers have had just one outstanding PP season in team history. The current PP unit has actually improved over last year's so far.Penalty Kill Percentage2000-2001 302001-2002 252002-2003 242003-2004 082005-2006 272006-2007 262007-2008 272008-2009 26Consistently poor. I have no explanation for that 2003-04 anomaly.Earning Power Play Opportunities2000-2001 072001-2002 242002-2003 132003-2004 022005-2006 012006-2007 102007-2008 282008-2009 09The outstanding area in team history is earning penalties. The Thrashers have been on the PP more often than most teams and they accomplished this in spite of the fact that Kovalchuk doesn't get the benefit of thedoubt as a consequence of his early diving issues.Team Discipline (Avoiding Short Handed Situations)2000-2001 262001-2002 212002-2003 172003-2004 282005-2006 282006-2007 102007-2008 152008-2009 19Bad teams usually take a lot of penalties. The players are not as good and they cheat and get called for it. Given their talent level the Thrashers have been a relatively disciplined team over the years. The one year the team qualified for the playoffs they did very well at staying out of the box. An observation: since Marc Savard and Modry have departed the Thrashers have not finished in the basement in penalties taken.ConclusionThe Thrashers have been bad at a lot of things in their history. I realize that is hardly a news flash to long term fans. What about this year? The most encouraging thing I can say is that they are generating pressure offensively, They rank 11th in shots and their up tempo system is earning the club a lot of PP opportunities (9th). So far they just haven't capitalized (27th in shooting %) and the offense ranks just 24th--I expect the offense to rise as the season progresses.On the defensive side things are still concerning. The shots allowed are still too high. Part of that is the new offensive system in which the defensemen are supposed to take more chances holding the puck in at the offensive blueline. The Thrashers forwards must become better at covering for those pinching defensemen in those situations where they fail to hold it in the offensive zone.Source

Being Honest About the Future

Last spring I was angry. The Thrashers traded Hossa. I wasn't angry about that. I was angry because the team didn't trade Holik and other veterans. I wa angry because we heard a lot of "happy talk" about how the Thrashers were leading the division late in the year.All of this "happy talk" was just self deception. The Thrashers were only in the playoff "hunt" because the entire Southeast Division was laughably weak. The one moment where the Thrashers were "leading the division" was created when Carolina began their late season collapse and Washington had yet to rise from the ashes of their brutal start. In that brief window the Thrashers looked better.But the truth is that last year's squad needed a fundamental rebuild. The Thrashers were one of the oldest veteran-laden teams in the entire. The veterans didn't play hard enough or well enough most nights--and veterans are expensive. The Thrashers were old and costly and they needed a full on rebuild. To contend on a budget you need a lot of young talent.What was required was an honest assessment of just how bad the team was. The Thrashers were "lucky" last years in the shootout--which made them look better than they really were. The Thrashers were "lucky" to play in a very weak division--which also made them better than they really were. If you use Goal Differential as a measure of team quality (and I do)--Atlanta was 30th--the worst team in the entire last year.The mistakes of club management were compounded by the feuding ownership. When you're at rock bottom major changes are required. But ownership was either unwilling to pay for a new GM or unwilling to be honest about just how bad the team was last season (just as they couldn't accept firing Bob Hartley in the summer of 2007 after he lost the team in the playoffs).Instead they kept the same GM in place and we got a half hearted rebuild. The organization never had the firesale they should have had. Even during the summer I advocated moving Lehtonen for young players. Pavelec looked like he was ready to begin his career and the Thrashers are still one of the older teams in the league. They should have traded Lehtonen for pieces of the future.Now the frachise and the team are at a cross roads. After two brutal losses in their last three games the season is on the line. The team played pretty well out of the gate but couldn't score--they deserved better. They might be able to pull themselves out of the funk but it has to start immediately. November is the easiest month on their schedule. If they don't exit this month with a winning record look out--because the schedule only gets tougher.The bigger problem is Kovalchuk looks disinterested this year. Last year the team played with very little passion, but Kovalchuk was an exception and he single handly carried the offense at times. This year Lehonen is playing well and Kovalchuk looks like a passenger. If the team goes down in flames this year it seems likely to me that Kovalchuk will want out.At that point ownership will be face-to-face with the giant mess. Will the ownership do what is necessary and hire a new GM who can then trade Kovalchuk, Schneider and Lehtonen for the young players we need to become a playoff contender in 2010 and beyond? Sometimes hitting rock bottom can be good--but you have to be honest and realize that's where you are and make major changes. Last year we hit bottom and failed to take the drastic steps necessary to rebuild and it looks like that only delayed the pain of parting with anohter marquee star player.Source

Gameday: You Can Bet On Hockey On Sundays Too

Solid weekend of gambling continues. Tons of NFL games to look at.But two games from the smell like parlay city.Could be a fun game to watch.The over is 5.5.If you hurry you can still get the Flyers bet in.And if you didn't get the Flyers bet in, put some loot on the Panthers.We're betting against the Thrashers whenever we can.The Panthers are +1.5. Do it.Go PensSource

Colby Armstrong Feature on CNN This Thursday

HTML clipboardYou may recall that when I was on the road with the Thrashers for the Tampagame on Oct. 21 I mentioned that CNN was with us to do a feature on ColbyArmstrong. Here are the details.The feature is part ofCNN's Road Warriorsseries and will air this Thursday, Nov. 6. It's short but I promise it'll begood. If not it's all Rebecca's fault. The story will air on CNN between 6-7am and on Headline News between6:30-7am, 8:30-9am, 1-1:30pm, and 3:30-4pm. It isn't a full 30 min show, butthose are the 30 minute windows it will air in. If you miss it or can't recordit don't worry- it'll live on theRoad Warriors sitefor six months. Colby being Colby, you can expected it to be a light-heartedlook at the road life of an player. Source