Kovalchuk Rumors

Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa sun writes:Talk among GMs is that Atlanta might be willing to make a huge deal before the trade deadline. W Ilya Kovalchuk, 25, is a year away from unrestricted free agency and has another season left on his contract at $7.5 million, but the whisper among executives is he might become available. It would be a tough pill for Atlanta to swallow, but Kovalchuk certainly wouldn't be the first franchise player to be dealt.I really hate having to write about this right now. The Thrashers are playing better than I expected. The last thing the club needs is another black trade speculation cloud hanging over them as was the case last year with all the Hossa talk.Garrioch has a checkered history of these things. He's been terribly wrong and he's also been correct in the past. On the Thrasher Talons scale of rumor mongers he certainly comes in higher than Eklund.The problem is this: no matter what the Thrashers say this kind of chatter will be out there until the Kovalchuk either re-signs next summer or a trade is made. There are no magic words that are going to make these trade rumors cease.Do I believe there have been converstations where Kovalchuk's name was mentioned? Absolutely yes. I'm sure that GMs talk about players all the time just to get a feel for their market value at that moment. I'm not shocked to think that one GM says to another GM "what would you give me for player x?" What really matters is not that a phone conversion about Kovalchuk took place, but how serious that conversation was--and only the two people involved in that conversation know how serious it was.Would trading Kovalchuk be a good idea? I've gone back and forth on this one to be honest. In my head the case for trading Kovlachuk runs like this: a) his defensive lapses are so bad that I believe he would probably cost his team a goal here and there in a tight playoff series--I'm not sure his offensive talent alone will get your team a Cup. b) Kovalchuk is a great player, but his stats are inflated because the Thrashers give him HUGE amounts of PP ice time. Kovalchuk is not early as effective with his ice time as other top stars. c) The Thrashers are not close enough to contending and he probably wouldn't want to stick around until they are close to contending.Would a trade help create a contender in this market? From a Marketing Department perspective trading Kovalchuk would be a disaster, but from a Hockey Operations perspective it might not be so bad. Why? The Thrashers will never be able to spend money like the best teams. The best chance to contend for a Stanley Cup is to load up on quality young players and have the team make a run before the core gets really expensive (age 27+). Once you generate some buzz in this market the revenues will increase and the money will be there to pay their salaries. The Thrashers have some good foundational players who are between the ages of 20-25, but the problem is that there are not ENOUGH of them--the foundation is not big enough for a contender. If you deal Kovlachuk for three young players now you might have the foundation for a contender in 2010.What is the case for not trading Kovalchuk? If you trade for young players who never make it, then you come up short big time. So far out of the Hossa trade only Colby Armstrong is a clear asset to the current team. Christensen continues his existence as a talented tease, Esposito may or may not become a player and Pittsburgh's 1st rounder draft pick is four years away from playing in the. That's one player and three maybes (and I'm only optimistic about one of those maybes).The other consideration is that Kovalchuk has begun to show greater leadership skills last season when he carried the team on his back offensively and this season he has shown more improvement on the defensive side of the ice. Ilya will go from a star to a superstar level if he becomes a sound defensive guy. The potential is there, and it is too great to give up on.What will happen next? If the Thrashers are having serious trade talks that means either that ownership is not willing to offer a $100 million Ovehckin sized contract next summer or that Kovalchuk has privately expressed concerns about re-signing in Atlanta. What I do know that if a decision has been made to move Kovalchuk the team will get the biggest bang for their buck by making a move sooner rather than later. If you trade Kovlachuk with nearly two years remaining, the club that acquires him is going to have two seasons to win him over and get him to re-sign there and thus they will be more likely to offer a better package. Hopefully this is nothing more than the usual slow week rumor chatter and I will not need to write about this topic again.Source

Big Week for the Thrashers

Is the glass half full or half empty?Saturday night's loss in Boston was one of the most entertaining games I'veseen the Thrashers play in the last year. Yes, it stinks that they lost and theofficiating was perplexing at times, but I was entertained from start to finish.I probably enjoyed that game more than I enjoyed any single loss of last season.You could look at the Thrashers' 2-4-2 record and say they're struggling, oryou could look at it and say that of six losses four were by a single goal andone of the other two was only a two-goal loss because of an empty-net goal. You could saythat the Thrashers are 12th in the Eastern Conference, or you could point outthat they're only four points out of the division lead and third place in theconference.John Anderson warned at the beginning of the season that there would be alearning curve and some struggles and that's what we're seeing now, but I'mimpressed that the team is keeping every game close and not getting blown outlike they did last year on a pretty frequent basis. The Thrashers are showingimprovement in many aspects from game-to-game (PP, PK, going to the net, gettingsecond and third chances) and at some point that improvement is going totranslate into wins. The October schedule has been loaded with tough opponentsbut November looks much friendlier with weaker opponents and some nice 3-4 daygaps between games during which they can do some serious practicing. They just have to get through this next week. Four games in six nights. Gamesagainst Philly (who the Thrashers haven't beaten since Nov. 18, 2005), theRangers (at MSG where there are still demons to exorcise), at New Jersey(against the snooze-inducing Devils) and then at versus Florida (who have aworse GF/GA ratio than Atlanta but have won more games). I'd love to see themstart the week off with a win over the banged up Flyers tomorrow night nonational TV. The Thrashers are 5-3-0 on Versus since they started carrying the. Philly is missing Briere and has a very raw blueline that is giving upalmost a full goal per game more than the Thrashers. The big questions is ifthey'll start Antero Niittymaki against Atlanta. If Kari Lehtonen has a nemesisit's Niittymaki. He's never beaten him on North American soil and Niittymaki hasa tendency to play lights out hockey against us (He's 9-0-0 with a 1.68 GAA and.940 save % all-time versus the Thrashers). Keep in min das well that Flyerscoach John Stevens and Thrashers coach John Anderson are well-acquainted witheach form their days in the AHL. The two met in the Calder Cup final in 2005 andStevens (and Niittymaki) came out on top.It should be an interesting game tomorrow, and an interesting week overallfor the Thrashers.Source

Some Quick Hits

Ken Klee was claimed off waivers and will play for Phoenix. I certainly hope Gretzky remembers to send Brian Burke a bouquet of flowers in return for those cheap serviceable players (Brygalov, Klee) he has given the Coyotes lately.I see that the announced attendance up in Columbus was just over 10,000. Keep in mind this is a northern (i.e. "traditional) hockey market. It just goes to show that fans in Columbus will not buy a poor hockey product forever, same as fans in Atlanta. "If you don't build it, they will not come."Three good reads:Why does the considering unorthodox moves to improve scoringAlan Ryder shows what is really going on with scoring the last few years.Source

Canucks face tough Bruins tonight

And one of those Bruins is a Nucks fan still.He still cheers for the Canucks and knows all the stats of all the games there. He’s a really big fan and it’s refreshing to see a young guy who easily could be so cocky and expect people to bow down to him be a really, really good kid.That is what Bruins' defenceman Andrew Ference said of his teammate Milan Lucic.-Lucic (pronounced loo-cheech)is a native of Vancouver. He played for the Vancouver Giants.-He is currently second in scoring on the Bruins with 4 goals and 7 points in 9 games. 3 of those came in the form of a hat trick against Atlanta on October 25.-6'4" 220 pounds. 20 years old. Drafted 50th overall by the Bruins in 2006.-Lucic put Leafs' Van Ryn through the glass on October 23. Don't do that here, Milan.-Watch Lucic, while playing for the Giants, nail a bunch of Tigers and then drop the gloves. The crowd chanted "Luuuuuuu". Good stuff.-Lucic Highlights videoA huge Lucic article, bio, etc and why the Canucks didn't draft him can be found at Crashing The Goalie. The Bruins are right in the middle of a 3-game road trip. They squeezed by the Oilers 1-0 in OT last night (who says Roloson sucks, by the way?). They have won 2 in a row.The Canucks put a half-assed road trip behind them and obliterated the Oilers 6-3 on Saturday night.It's not very often that we get to see the Nucks play the Bruins, so this is going to be a treat to see them tangle in Vancouver.Let's see how Lucic performs, as he will be fired up. That's not a good thing for Canucks fans.Hopefully Kyle Wellwood keeps up his great play, and Krog hits the net.It's time for the Sedins to break out of their mini funk.The Canucks are going to have to shoot high and often on B's goalie Tim Thomas (if he indeed plays). Thomas is one of my faves. He never quits on a play.Are we in for a goaltending battle from hell? Or a goal fest? It's so hard to tell with this Canucks team.**UPDATE**I'd like to give a big shout out to the Bruins bloggers / site owners out there who I have made acquaintance with:GHOSTS OF THE GARDENTHE SPOKED BTHE OLD BRUINS FANHERE COME THE BRUINS!Greetings to you all and may the Canucks kick your teams' ass!GAME TIME: 7:00 PSTTV: TSNT Tags: Canucks Bruins Game Preview October+28+2008 Milan+Lucic+profile Source

Same Old Story, How Will it End?

The Flyers came to Atlanta and crushed the Thrashers...again. The Thrashers made an early mistake (turnover by Boulton) and then fell apart as everyone tried to freelance. The game was a stinker, I watched the third period at Taco Mac where I at least had the pleasure of eating a good meal and some the company of some other long suffering Atlanta fans (Flames fans even!).Thursday is a major test for the Thrashers and Coach Anderson. The old Thrashers club would suffer a brutal loss like this and then struggle to regain their confidence. Quality teams are able to mentally turn the page after a bad game and get right back to doing the good things there were doing before. Will the Thrashers display that sort of mental toughness? They certainly were playing solid hockey before this game--can they turn forget about Tuesday night and get back to where they were before?Can Coach Anderson get them back on track quickly? Coach Hartley and Coach Waddell certainly struggled to get the train back on the tracks here in Atlanta. The Wednesday practice has been moved to Philips Arena which means it is closed to public. It also means Coach Anderson can peel the paint off the walls if he feels that is necessary--without embarrassing players in public.The last thing I have to say is this, how many times does Nittymaki need to outplay Lehtonen before Atlanta will realize they should start the backup against him. Nittymaki has beaten Lehtonen every time he has faced in the. Back in 2005 Nittymaki and the Philadelphia Phantoms swept Lehtonen and the Chicago Wolves. If my math is correct that means Nittymaki has something like an 11-0 record versus Lehtonen if you look at their last 11 contests against one another. Please let's try Hedberg next time. It might not work but they really ought to give a shot.Source

What does Nash at center really tell us?

I said yesterday it was time to panic. Well in a certain way I think Hitch's trial of Nash at center shows he agrees. Although you'd never hear it described that way.How else can you describe the move? Panic, desperation...same thing to me.Even more importantly I think it sends a message to upper management that he is very unhappy with his center situation...and who can blame him?The only guy up the middle doing anything is a rookie in Derek Brassard. He's played wonderful actually and certainly looks like the real deal. Through 9 games he has as many points (7) as Malhotra, Peca, Umberger and Novotny have combined. Not nearly good enough.Lets be honest here, I give the Nash experiment at center a period...maybe two. Its not going to work. Just to cover everyone neither will Modin, Voracek, Filatov. Only a few select players can make that transition and have an immediate impact -- Zetterberg is a guy who comes to mind.After 8 games with RJ up the middle that move has proved to be a bust...he's back at wing at least for now.Peca, Manny, Novotny and Murray are in no/way/shape/form top six centers. They are not the answers.However after thinking about this move through the night I now understand its importance as a signal to management that if we are serious about contending, if you really want to "win now" then something has to be done.The bottom line is that Howson has got to make a move here.Now I'm not talking about giving up the world to land some elite center. While an elite center would be nice, trading away the young players like Brass/Voracek/Filatov/Mayorov/Mason would be counterproductive to the long term success of the franchise as it appears that we are finally hitting on these guys.No, what we need is a capable competent player. Now this player isn't going to be perfect. I mentioned in the comments that a Robert Lang type...a veteran guy who knows the game, can put up points and has a short term contract and could be had for a reasonable price could work.Now if they are willing to part with some young assets then maybe you look for something different which I have an idea I'll share in a bit.So who do the Jackets target?If I'm Howson I start with other teams that are struggling out of the gate that may need a shakeup. Ottawa, Islanders, Tampa, Phoenix, LA, Dallas, Atlanta...Then there are the teams up against the cap like your Wings, Bruins, Ducks, Flyers, Captials. These teams aren't struggling but may want to clear out some salary or make some early adjustments to their squads.Now its early so teams may be reluctant to deal but I at least get conversations started with them.Two ideas I'll throw out there.Michael Nylander. Now stay with me for a sec. I know he's older at age 36 and doesn't have the best contract out there (3 years left at 4.875) but he fills the hole and he's productive (has 8 points in 9 games). He's veteran who is great on the PP and really good with the puck and finding the open man. The risk is that he becomes the new "Fedorov" and he has been injury prone lately. The Caps would likely move him relatively cheap to get out from under his contract.Profile:ASSETS: Has terrific playmaking ability and excellent vision. When hot, he's an assist machine. Is improving his defensive game with experience.FLAWS: Does not possess a knack for scoring goals, and too often will pass up a shot in the slot area. Plays a passive game and can get pushed around physically.CAREER POTENTIAL: Second line center.David Krejci. Now here is a guy at the other end of the spectrum. He's a 22 year old center for the Bruins who is just now finding his way in the. He had 27 points in 56 games last year and has 6 in 10 so far this season. I have watched this kid a lot and I absolutely love him. The B's have Savard, Bergeron, Axlesson, Yell and even Kessel playing some center so may want to unload one as they need puck-movers on the backend. The risk is that he gets to Columbus and flames out or that he commands the world this offseason as he's an RFA. That would also give Hitch two young 22 and under centers as his top 6 guys....and we know how Hitch likes his vets.Proflie:ASSETS: Has excellent vision and passing skills, and profiles as a classic playmaking center. His head is always in the game, and he possesses great hockey sense.FLAWS: Must get physically stronger in order to maximize his offensive potential at the highest level. Needs to work on his play without the puck.CAREER POTENTIAL: Second line center.So there are two names for you. Again not perfect answers but they are top 6 centers who could help this lineup and shouldn't take the sun (and the moon) to acquire.If Dallas continues to struggle another guy I would love to have as a stop gap is Mike Modano. He has one more year left after this one at 3.45 mil and there is the Hitch connection and I think he could really help this Jackets lineup. Would the Stars part with their life long player (including his Minny years) is a very good question?There are some other names as well. Spezza is getting tossed around a lot in the rumor mill. Would the Jackets revisit the Brad Richards scenario as he's not exactly setting the world on fire in Dallas?So what would the Jackets have to give up to get someone? I think anything short of Nash, Leclaire, Voracek, Brassard, Filatov, and Mason has to be on the table. I can't see any of the new faces going anywhere in Commodore, Tyutin, Huselius, Backman or Torres yet.For a young guy like Kreci I think it starts with Russell going the other way -- in fact that is really the only asset the Jackets have defensively that would be of any attraction to the Bruins. They won't want prospects or picks back -- they are in "win now" mode as well.For a guy like Nylander the Jackets would have to send some salary back. The paper has mentioned a few times now that the Jackets are deep at wing. The obvious name for me would be Freddy Modin. He would give the caps another big body who is playoff tested and after Ovechkin they could use some help at LW. His contract has one year left after this at 3.35. Both teams take some risk with the injuries. He could be had for a draft pick/prospect I think but ownership would really have to step up financially in addition to what they already have which, judging by Monday's attendance -- ain't happening anytime soon.So there is a couple of scenarios. I love Russell and like Modin but something has to go the other way.Now I don't see Howson doing anything for a few more games, if at all, but I would be burning up the phone lines right now to see what's available in the middle. This team can't afford to dig a bigger hole that what it has and this franchise can't afford another top 10 draft pick year.As far as what to do now in the immediate short term?1. Its wake up call time. I play the best players in the moment. Brass and Voracek may not be the best players, yet, but they are currently playing like it. They get prime ice time.2. I sure don't break up the only thing that is working for me in the Chimera-Brassard-Voracek line. In fact I elevate them to #1 until the Nash line takes it back over or this line goes sour.3. I take the next best option I have at center and elevate Peca to the #2 hole between Nash & Huselius. Its not ideal but its all we've got.4. Time to take the kid gloves off with Nash. If he's playing well, play him. If not, then play who is. He certainly stays at wing.5. I shake up the defensive pairings. Tyutin goes with Commodore. Hedja goes with Klesla.6. I start LaCosta for a game and give the kid a chance. Its a risk but so is starting Norrena.My lineup tomorrow night:Chimera Brassard VoracekNash Peca HuseliusUmberger Malhotra BollMurray Novotny DorsettKlesla HejdaCommodore TyutinBackman MethotTollefsenLaCostaNorrenaBottom line is that while I don't agree with moving Nash to center Hitch knows you can't just sit still and hope something happens. I think the same applies to Howson.Fire away - time to make a move or to early?-LTLSource

Who is Playing Well On Special Teams?

[Editorial note: I wrote this before the Flyers game and I didn't feel like updating it after the 7-0 loss. Don't complain, I do this for free.]In a typical hockey game roughly one quarter of the contest is spent in special team situations. Some folks call these stretches "high leverage events" because the chances of a goal being scored a much higher than they are at Even Strength.Right now the Thrashers rank 23rd on the PP and 22nd on the PK. Both could stand to be better of course. So which Thrashers are playing well and which are playing poorly so far?In order to answer that question I came up with a system that looks at how the team does when that player is on the ice. Most readers don't care much for the math so I put the explanation down at the bottom of this post.Penalty Kill Rating (Thrashers with 1 minute or more of SH TOI)(Positive numbers indicate the TEAM was more productive when normal when that players was on the ice.)+2.73 Eric Perrin +1.85 Marty Reasoner+1.44 Ron Hainsey+1.40 Garnet Exelby+0.36 Zach Bogosian+0.27 Ilya Kovalchuk+0.25 Nathan Oystrick+0.09 Colby Armstrong-0.22 Erik Christensen-0.64 Todd White (includes one 5 on 3 goal)-1.07 Tobias Enstrom (includes one 5 on 3 goal)-1.14 Mathieu Schneider-1.39 Jim Slater-1.81 Slava Kozlov-2.18 Nic Havelid (includes one 5 on 3 goal)Note: I noted that three of the players have one 5>3 goal counted against them. Defending a 5>3 is much harder of course and being on for one of those goals should probably count less than a 5>4 but I don't have an easy breakdown of PK ice time by manpower situations so it is all lumped together on.com.Discussion: The best forwards are Perrin and Reasoner (not a big surprise) and the best defense are Hainsey and Exelby pairing. On the flip side the worst forwards so far are Kozlov and Slater (who was demoted from the PK early last season) and Havelid and Schneider.Now before anyone gets too carried away with this analysis I must point out that the team has only played 8 games and therefore the sample size is tiny here. A lucky or unlucky bounce of the puck will distort these ratings a great deal early in the season. However, I will say that the ranking roughly reflect my impressions--I certainly expected Perrin and Reasoner to come out on top and I expected Slater to finish near the bottom. I'm a bit surprised to see Exelby doing that well but he has played much better so far this season after being partnered with Ron Hainsey. I'm also a bit surprised to see Havelid doing so poorly.Power Play Rating (Thrashers with 1 minute or more of SH TOI)(Positive numbers indicate the TEAM was more productive when normal when that players was on the ice.)+2.97 Todd White+1.20 Colby Armstrong +1.04 Nic Havelid +1.01 Slava Kozlov +0.91 Tobias Enstrom+0.75 Zach Bogosian-0.06 Ilya Kovalchuk-0.08 Eric Boulton-0.09 Marty Reasoner-0.89 Bryan Little-1.13 Jason Williams-1.30 Ron Hainsey -1.48 Mathieu Schneider-2.54 Erik ChristensenDiscussion: You red hot players are Todd White, Armstrong, Havelid and Enstrom. The team has scored at a higher than expected rate on the PP when they have been out on the PP unit so far this season. Todd White might surprise people but he actually put up some very strong PP scoring rate numbers his last year in Minnesota before coming to Atlanta-so there is a track record of him being fairly effective with the extra man. Todd White has been on the ice for 5 of the 7 PP goals the Thrashers have scored so far this season. He's either extremely lucky or he's doing some good things out there--I'll go with the latter. Note to the Thrashers coaching staff--play Slava more on the PP and less on the PK!As far as the ice cold players (Christensen, Williams, Schneider and Hainesy) I was a little surprised to see Hainsey but he's received a mountain of PP ice time and the team has potted just 2 PP goals in that stretch. Everyone who follows this team knows that Williams and Christensen are off to slow starts--but the depth of Christensen's struggles are pretty amazing. So far this season only Kovalchuk and Schneider have received more PP minutes and Christensen has been out there on the ice for a Thrashers PP goal just once in all those minutes. Based on the team average we would expect the Thrashers to have scored 2.5 more PP goals in those minutes. Note to the staff Erik Christensen probably shouldn't be your 2nd ranked forward in PP ice time--if I were advising the team I'd suggest Eric Perrin get a few more of Erik Christensen's PP minutes (Perrin has just 10 seconds on the PP this season).Again, it is early in the season and lucky or unlucky bounces can certainly skew things in the short run. Even with that caveat, I think I learned a few things by doing this little research project.How I calculated this: Basically for both the PP and PK situations I am comparing the number of Thrashers PP goals scored (or PK goals allowed) to the Expected Goals For (or Expected Goals Allowed) given the number of minutes played by each guy. So the first thing I did is gather the ice time stats and who was on the ice for every special teams goals from the boxscores. Then I calculated the team rate (PPTOI/PPGF) and used each player's ice time to find an expected goals number (PPTOI/ATL average Team PPG per minute) and then subtracted the actual goals from the expected goals (Actual PPG-Expected PP Goals) to produce a rating for each players based upon their special teams ice time and the Thrashers production when that particular player is on the ice.Source